My one AI prediction for 2026

I'm not going to give you 10 predictions. I'm giving you one — because it's the only one that matters.

The companies that win with AI in 2026 will share one thing in common:

• They stopped treating AI like traditional software.

• No more POC purgatory.

• No more fake data that "represents" production.

• No more building without defining what success looks like.

• No more deterministic processes for probabilistic technology.

Instead, they'll do something that sounds obvious, but almost nobody actually does:

Test with real customers. Use real data. Define success before you build. Iterate fast.

I'm already seeing it. The serious teams have stopped chasing demos that impress executives and started running thin-slice experiments that prove business value in weeks, not quarters.

85% of AI projects still fail. That won't change in 2026.

What will change is that the 15% who succeed will pull so far ahead that everyone else will finally stop and ask: "What are they doing differently?"

The answer isn't a better model. It's a better process.

I've spent the last year helping enterprise teams make exactly this transition. Snowball Sprint compresses months of wandering into weeks of validated learning — through AI strategy, training, and hands-on building of real AI applications, not POCs.

The Hype Era of AI gave everyone permission to experiment.

The Substance Era will separate the winners from the tourists.

Which one are you?